Baby Gabriel's Mother Sentenced to Prison

Elizabeth Johnson -- who at one point admitted to killing her son, the missing infant Gabriel Johnson, before saying she gave him away -- told a judge she "deserved the maximum" sentence, before receiving a prison term of 5.25 years, half of the max.

In October, Johnson, 26, was found guilty of custodial interference and unlawful imprisonment stemming from the disappearance of her 8-month-old son, last seen on Dec. 24, 2009. The baby's whereabouts remain unknown.

"I am brokenhearted over my son still being missing," said Johnson, wearing a striped prison jumpsuit. "I'm at a loss because I do deserve the max. What I have done is unconscionable. I would convict myself.

"I do deserve the maximum, I do," she said through tears. "[But it] wasn't how [the prosecution] made it out to be. It wasn't like that. That's all I have to say."

Judge Paul McMurdie said he wished he could design a sentence that would compel Johnson to disclose Gabriel's whereabouts, but could only "sentence her for the offenses [for which] she's been convicted."

Johnson, 26, will serve 5.25 years in an Arizona state prison, followed by four years of probation.

At today's sentencing hearing, prosecutor Angela Andrews called Johnson' actions "despicable," but said the state would drop its request to see Johnson serve out a maximum sentence if she would tell authorities where her son could be found.

Johnson, who has been in jail for the past three years, faced a maximum of 9.5 years in prison on the two convictions. In October, the jury did not reach a verdict on a third charge of kidnapping.

Before Gabriel's disappearance, Johnson had been embroiled in a custody battle with the baby's biological father, Logan McQueary. The couple differed on putting their infant son up for adoption. Johnson had wanted to, McQueary did not.

"I think Elizabeth should be held accountable for her actions, for making my son disappear," Johnson told the court. "She should stay in jail until Gabriel is found or be given the maximum sentence as possible."

While she was fighting with McQueary over custody of their son, Johnson left Tempe, Ariz., with Gabriel and traveled to San Antonio, Texas, on Dec. 18, 2009. Johnson failed to bring Gabriel back to visit with McQueary two days later, violating a court custody order.

Gabriel was last seen with his mother on Dec. 26, 2009. The following day, Johnson sent text messages to McQueary saying she had killed him. Johnson was recorded telling McQueary that she suffocated their son with a towel until he turned blue. She said she then put his body in a diaper bag and put the bag in the trash.

Later, Johnson told authorities she gave Gabriel to a couple she met in a park in San Antonio, though she has never named who she gave the child to.

ABC News' Alexis Shaw contributed to this report.

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Egyptian opposition to shun Mursi's national dialogue

CAIRO (Reuters) - Prime Minister Mohamed Mursi was expected to press ahead on Saturday with talks on ways to end Egypt's worst crisis since he took office even though the country's main opposition leaders have vowed to stay away.

Cairo and other cities have been rocked by violent protests since November 22, when Mursi promulgated a decree awarding himself sweeping powers that put him above the law.

The upheaval in the most populous Arab nation, following the fall of Hosni Mubarak last year, worries the West, in particular the United States, which has given it billions of dollars in military and other aid since Egypt made peace with Israel in 1979.

Mursi's deputy raised the possibility that a referendum set for December 15 on a new constitution opposed by liberals might be delayed. But the concession only goes part-way towards meeting the demands of the opposition, who also want Mursi to scrap the decree awarding himself wide powers.

On Friday, large crowds of protesters surged around the presidential palace, breaking through barbed wire barricades and climbing on tanks guarding the seat of Egypt's first freely elected president, who took office in June.

As the night wore on, tens of thousands of opposition supporters were still at the palace, waving flags and urging Mursi to "Leave, leave".

"AS LONG AS IT TAKES"

"We will stay here for as long as it takes and will continue to organize protests elsewhere until President Mursi cancels his constitutional decree and postpones the referendum," said Ahmed Essam, 28, a computer engineer and a member of the liberal Dostour party.

Vice President Mahmoud Mekky issued a statement saying the president was prepared to postpone the referendum if that could be done without legal challenge.

Mursi's planned dialogue meeting was expected to go ahead on Saturday in the absence of most opposition factions. "Everything will be on the table," a presidential source said.

Mursi could be joined by some senior judiciary figures and politicians such as Ayman Nour, one of the candidates in Mubarak's only multi-candidate presidential race, in 2005, in which he was unsurprisingly trounced.

The opposition has demanded that Mursi rescind the decree giving himself wide powers and delay the vote set for December 15 on a constitution drafted by an Islamist-led assembly which they say fails to meet the aspirations of all Egyptians.

EXPAT VOTE DELAYED

The state news agency reported that the election committee had postponed the start of voting for Egyptians abroad until Wednesday, instead of Saturday as planned. It did not say whether this would affect the timing of voting within Egypt.

Ahmed Said, leader of the liberal Free Egyptians Party, told Reuters that delaying expatriate voting was intended to seem like a concession but would not change the opposition's stance.

The opposition organized marches converging on the palace which Republican Guard units had ringed with tanks and barbed wire on Thursday after violence between supporters and opponents of Mursi killed seven people and wounded 350.

Islamists, who had obeyed a military order for demonstrators to leave the palace environs, held funerals on Friday at Cairo's al-Azhar mosque for six Mursi partisans who were among the dead.

"With our blood and souls, we sacrifice to Islam," they chanted.

A group led by leftist opposition leader Hamdeen Sabahy has called for an open-ended protest at the palace.

Some pro-Mursi demonstrators gathered in a mosque not far from the palace, but said they would not march towards the palace to avoid a repeat of the violence that took place on Wednesday night.

In a speech late on Thursday, Mursi had refused to retract his decree or cancel the referendum on the constitution, but offered talks on the way forward after the referendum.

The National Salvation Front, the main opposition coalition, said it would not join the dialogue. The Front's coordinator, Mohamed ElBaradei, a Nobel peace laureate, dismissed the offer as "arm-twisting and imposition of a fait accompli".

ElBaradei said that if Mursi were to scrap the decree with which he awarded himself extra powers and postpone the referendum "he will unite the national forces".

Murad Ali, spokesman for the Muslim Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party, said opposition reactions were sad: "What exit to this crisis do they have other than dialogue?" he asked.

(Additional reporting by Omar Fahmy; Writing by Giles Elgood; Editing by Michael Roddy)

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Australian police seize US$81 million of cocaine

SYDNEY: Australian police Friday said they had seized cocaine shipped from Chile worth up to A$77 million (US$81 million), the third global drug syndicate busted in as many weeks.

The 135-kilogram (298-pound) seizure followed a three-month Australian Federal Police investigation and led to the arrest of five men -- three Australians, one Italian and one Mexican.

"The Australian Federal Police has seized almost 700 kilograms of illicit drugs in the past several weeks as a result of three separate investigations," Commander Jennifer Hurst said.

"These results should send a clear and lasting message to criminals that police will not rest in the fight against organised crime."

Last month, police seized 350 kilograms of cocaine and methamphetamine with a combined estimated street value of up to A$237 million, arresting an American and two Canadians.

A further 200 kilograms of cocaine, along with a badly decomposed body, were found onboard a shipwrecked vessel in Tonga last month as part of an investigation by police from Australia, Tonga, the Cook Islands and the US.

The latest operation began in September, when customs officers inspected a shipment from Chile in Sydney and found significant quantities of cocaine.

Two Australian men, aged 49 and 55, were charged with attempting to possess a commercial quantity of cocaine and a 41-year-old Australian was charged with conspiracy to import a commercial quantity of the drug.

The Italian, aged 49, has also been charged with conspiracy to import cocaine while a 45-year-old Mexican was charged with conspiracy to import and attempt to possess a commercial amount of the drug.

The maximum penalty for these offences is life imprisonment.

- AFP/ck

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Tribal women wage war against IMFL

SHIMLA: Tribal women in Lahaul-Spiti and Kinnaur district have waged a unique war to curb social inequality, especially during marriages and other social functions. In a bid to curb show of wealth, women have come up with unique idea of banning the use of English liquor and those defying ban are being imposed heavy penalty.

Liquor is an important part of tribal customs and social get together are incomplete if alcohol and mutton are not served to guests. Since ages, tribals in Kinnaur are brewing liquor locally known as "angoori" while in Lahaul-Spiti they make it from wheat. But with the coming of wealth locally brewed liquor was replaced by whisky and beer resulting into social inequality widening the gap between rich and poor.

Noted social activist of Kinnaur and chairperson of Kinnaur Mahila Kalyan Parishad Ratan Manjari said over the years serving English liquor and beer during marriages and other social functions had become a show of wealth and those not having money too were serving it and get burdened with debt. "Trend was wrong which needed to be stopped and now we have done it in many villages of Kinnaur," she said. Kinnaur Mahila Kalyan Parishad has 200 mahila mandals as its members.

Ratan Manjari said for 5-6 years, they have mobilized support of women in Kinnaur district to tell them how use of English liquor and beer during marriages is resulting in waste of money besides creating divide among rich and poor. "Today, we have succeeded in banning English liquor in social functions, especially in Kalpa, Sangla, Lippa and other areas of district," she said.

To ensure that people obey the decision, a provision of imposing fine has been made by women amicably. "We have decided to impose penalty of Rs 5,000 on people serving the English liquor and those consuming it," Manjari said. She said still a lot more is required to be done.

In Lahaul-Spiti district, Udaipur village is setting an example for others by observing complete ban on English liquor and beer during social gathering for last three years. "During marriages and other functions only locally made liquor is served. Those defying ban are punished by mahila mandal members," said Hemvati, Mahila Mandal member of Udaipur.

Hemvati said if a family in the village found serving English liquor and Beer despite ban, then Rs 10,000 fine is imposed, but if same offence is committed second time then the family is boycotted socially.

"Such decisions are in larger interest of society as seeing rich people serving liquor even poor were following the trend after borrowing money. In one wedding, people were usually spending Rs 50,000 to 1 lakh only on liquor, but now with ban enforced in many villages show of wealth has been curbed in the interest of poor," said Rigzin Samphel Hayerpa, Zila Parishad member from Kolang in Lahaul-Spiti.

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Celebrations planned as Wash. legalizes marijuana

SEATTLE (AP) — Legal marijuana possession becomes a reality under Washington state law on Thursday, and some people planned to celebrate the new law by breaking it.

Voters in Washington and Colorado last month made those the first states to decriminalize and regulate the recreational use of marijuana. Washington's law takes effect Thursday and allows adults to have up to an ounce of pot — but it bans public use of marijuana, which is punishable by a fine, just like drinking in public.

Nevertheless, some people planned to gather at 12:01 a.m. PST Thursday to smoke in public beneath Seattle's Space Needle. Others planned a midnight party outside the Seattle headquarters of Hempfest, the 21-year-old festival that attracts tens of thousands of pot fans every summer.

"This is a big day because all our lives we've been living under the iron curtain of prohibition," said Hempfest director Vivian McPeak. "The whole world sees that prohibition just took a body blow."

In another sweeping change for Washington, Gov. Chris Gregoire on Wednesday signed into law a measure that legalizes same-sex marriage. The state joins several others that allow gay and lesbian couples to wed.

That law also takes effect Thursday, when gay and lesbian couples can start picking up their wedding certificates and licenses at county auditors' offices. Those offices in King County, the state's largest and home to Seattle, and Thurston County, home to the state capital of Olympia, planned to open the earliest, at 12:01 a.m. Thursday, to start issuing marriage licenses. Because the state has a three-day waiting period, the earliest that weddings can take place is Sunday.

The Seattle Police Department provided this public marijuana use enforcement guidance to its officers via email Wednesday night: "Until further notice, officers shall not take any enforcement action — other than to issue a verbal warning — for a violation of Initiative 502."

Thanks to a 2003 law, marijuana enforcement remains the department's lowest priority. Even before I-502 passed on Nov. 6, police rarely busted people at Hempfest, despite widespread pot use, and the city attorney here doesn't prosecute people for having small amounts of marijuana.

Officers will be advising people to take their weed inside, police spokesman Jonah Spangenthal-Lee wrote on the SPD Blotter. "The police department believes that, under state law, you may responsibly get baked, order some pizzas and enjoy a 'Lord of the Rings' marathon in the privacy of your own home, if you want to."

Washington's new law decriminalizes possession of up to an ounce for those over 21, but for now selling marijuana remains illegal. I-502 gives the state a year to come up with a system of state-licensed growers, processors and retail stores, with the marijuana taxed 25 percent at each stage. Analysts have estimated that a legal pot market could bring Washington hundreds of millions of dollars a year in new tax revenue for schools, health care and basic government functions.

But marijuana remains illegal under federal law. That means federal agents can still arrest people for it, and it's banned from federal properties, including military bases and national parks.

The Justice Department has not said whether it will sue to try to block the regulatory schemes in Washington and Colorado from taking effect.

"The department's responsibility to enforce the Controlled Substances Act remains unchanged," said a statement issued Wednesday by the Seattle U.S. attorney's office. "Neither states nor the executive branch can nullify a statute passed by Congress" — a non-issue, since the measures passed in Washington and Colorado don't "nullify" federal law, which federal agents remain free to enforce.

The legal question is whether the establishment of a regulated marijuana market would "frustrate the purpose" of the federal pot prohibition, and many constitutional law scholars say it very likely would.

That leaves the political question of whether the administration wants to try to block the regulatory system, even though it would remain legal to possess up to an ounce of marijuana.

Colorado's measure, as far as decriminalizing possession goes, is set to take effect by Jan. 5. That state's regulatory scheme is due to be up and running by October 2013.

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Johnson can be reached at https://twitter.com/GeneAPseattle

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Not 'Wild West': Talking Cyber Ops at Iran's Backdoor

Robert Clark, the operational attorney for U.S. Cyber Command, stood in a grand ballroom with gold flaked ceilings and sparkling chandeliers to address an audience that included men in flowing white robes and veiled women and tried to hammer home a single point: cyber warfare is not the "Wild West."

Clark, who emphasized that he was speaking only in a personal capacity and not on behalf of the U.S. government, wanted to assure the relatively small gathering in the United Arab Emirates that in an age where a new "revolutionary" cyber weapon like Stuxnet is discovered every few months -- usually on computers in Iran, just across the Arabian Gulf -- legal considerations are taken into account before cyber attacks are launched.

"Articles that talk about cyber warfare and [say] that rules of engagement aren't evolving as fast as [the cyber attacks], it's just not true," Clark said. "We have the law of armed conflict applying to any type conflict and it applies to cyberspace operations also... It's just not the Wild West out there."

For most of his presentation, Clark spoke in generalities about the legal aspects of American cyber capabilities because despite the months-old admission from his boss, U.S. Cyber Command chief Gen. Keith Alexander, that the military is developing a "pro-active, agile cyber force," and the oft-cited New York Times report on America's role in developing Stuxnet, the devastating cyber weapon that hit an Iranian nuclear facility in late 2009, no current American officials have gone on record claiming responsibility for an offensive cyber attack.

However, emboldened by a government colleague's praise of Stuxnet earlier this year, Clark couldn't resist using it as a hypothetical example.

He said that before a weapon like Stuxnet would be launched, the same legal criteria would be considered as if it were a physical military attack. Is there an imminent threat from the target? Does it absolutely have to be taken out? Will the attack cause casualties or collateral damage that could and should be avoided?

Answering his own question about casualties, Clark echoed comments from colleague Air Force Col. Gary Brown when he noted the impressive restraint of the worm. Though Stuxnet was discovered on thousands of computers around the world in 2010, cyber researchers quickly realized that it was something of a smart bomb. It would spread harmlessly from computer to computer until it found itself on the exact system configuration -- a control system at an Iranian nuclear facility -- it was meant to target.

"Stuxnet," Clark said, "was a very discriminant weapon."

After Stuxnet was discovered and analyzed, Richard Clarke, a former White House counter-terrorism adviser and current ABC News consultant, said he thought that Stuxnet showed such care to limit collateral damage that it must have been developed with healthy input from anxious lawyers.

Robert Clark's presentation Wednesday was one of the first talks at the Black Hat security conference held at the opulent Emirate Palace Hotel in Abu Dhabi and though most of the presentations were highly technical, Clark wasn't the first and or the last to talk about the cyber struggle over Iran.

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Egypt demonstrators reject Mursi call for dialogue

CAIRO (Reuters) - Demonstrators rejected a call from Egypt's Islamist President Mohamed Mursi for a national dialogue after deadly clashes around his palace, demanding the "downfall of the regime" - the chant that brought down Hosni Mubarak.

Mursi said in a televised speech late on Thursday that plans were on track for a referendum on a new constitution on December 15 despite clashes that killed seven people. He proposed a meeting on Saturday with political leaders, "revolutionary youth" and legal figures to discuss the way forward after that.

But a leading activist group rejected the offer, and fresh demonstrations were called for Friday.

The "April 6" movement, which played a prominent role in igniting the revolt against Mubarak said on its Facebook page that Friday's protests would deliver a "red card" to Mursi.

Egypt has been plunged into turmoil since Mursi issued a decree on November 22 awarding himself wide powers and shielding his decisions from judicial review.

His Islamist supporters say the decree was necessary to prevent Mubarak-era judges from interfering with reforms. A constitution drawn up by a body dominated by Islamists is due to be put to a referendum next week.

The opposition has demanded that Mursi scrap his decree, postpone the referendum and redraft the constitution.

In his address, Mursi said: "I call for a full, productive dialogue with all figures and heads of parties, revolutionary youth and senior legal figures to meet this Saturday."

Several thousand opposition protesters near the palace waved their shoes in derision after his speech and shouted "Killer, killer" and "We won't go, he will go" - another of the slogans used against Mubarak in last year's revolt.

The Cairo headquarters of the Muslim Brotherhood, the group that propelled Mursi to victory in a June election, was set ablaze. Other offices of its political party were attacked.

TENTATIVE CONCESSION

The United States, worried about the stability of an Arab partner which has a peace deal with Israel and which receives $1.3 billion a year in U.S. military aid, had urged dialogue.

Mursi said his entire decree would lapse after the constitutional referendum, regardless of its result.

He said a new constituent assembly would be formed to redraft the constitution if Egyptians rejected the one written in the past six months.

The Republican Guard, an elite unit whose duties include protecting the presidential palace, restored peace on Thursday after a night of violence outside the palace, ordering rival demonstrators to leave by mid-afternoon.

Mursi supporters withdrew, but opposition protesters remained, kept away by a barbed wire barricade guarded by tanks. By evening their numbers had swelled to several thousand.

Thousands of supporters and opponents of Mursi had fought well into Thursday's early hours, using rocks, petrol bombs and guns. Officials said 350 were wounded in the violence. Six of the dead were Mursi supporters, the Muslim Brotherhood said.

Opposition groups have called for protests after Friday prayers aimed at "the downfall of the militia regime", a dig at what they see as the Brotherhood's organized street muscle.

A communique from a leftist group urged protesters to gather at mosques and squares across Egypt, and to stage marches in Cairo and its sister city Giza, converging on the presidential palace. "Egyptian blood is a red line," the communique said.

Hardline Islamist Salafis also summoned their supporters to protest against what they consider biased coverage of the crisis by some private Egyptian satellite television channels.

Since Mursi issued his decree, six of his advisers have resigned. Essam al-Amir, the director of state television, quit on Thursday, as did a Christian official at the presidency.

The Brotherhood's supreme guide, Mohamed Badie, called for unity, saying divisions "only serve the nation's enemies".

The Islamists, who have won presidential and parliamentary elections since Mubarak was overthrown, are confident they can win the referendum and the parliamentary election to follow.

As well as relying on his Brotherhood power base, Mursi may also tap into a popular yearning for stability and economic revival after almost two years of political turmoil.

Egypt's pound hit an eight-year low on Thursday, reversing gains made on hopes that a $4.8 billion IMF loan would stabilize the economy. The stock market fell 4.6 percent.

(Additional reporting by Edmund Blair and Marwa Awad; Writing by Alistair Lyon and Peter Graff; Editing by Louise Ireland)

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US sends offers aid after deadly Typhoon Bopha

WASHINGTON: The United States offered disaster relief and sent condolences Wednesday to the Philippines and Palau in the wake of Typhoon Bopha, which left hundreds dead.

At least 325 people were killed and hundreds remain missing in the Philippines following the deadliest typhoon to hit the country this year, the Philippines civil defence chief said in Manila.

"The United States offers condolences for the destruction and loss of life in the southern Philippines and the widespread damage to populated areas in Palau caused by Typhoon Bopha," deputy State Department spokesman Mark Toner said in a statement.

"Our embassies in Manila and Koror have offered immediate disaster relief assistance, and we are working closely with authorities in both countries to offer additional assistance as needed. Our thoughts and prayers are with all those affected by this tragedy."

Philippines civil defence chief Benito Ramos warned that the toll was expected to rise because hundreds of people are still missing.

- AFP/ck

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Study could spur wider use of prenatal gene tests

A new study sets the stage for wider use of gene testing in early pregnancy. Scanning the genes of a fetus reveals far more about potential health risks than current prenatal testing does, say researchers who compared both methods in thousands of pregnancies nationwide.

A surprisingly high number — 6 percent — of certain fetuses declared normal by conventional testing were found to have genetic abnormalities by gene scans, the study found. The gene flaws can cause anything from minor defects such as a club foot to more serious ones such as mental retardation, heart problems and fatal diseases.

"This isn't done just so people can terminate pregnancies," because many choose to continue them even if a problem is found, said Dr. Ronald Wapner, reproductive genetics chief at Columbia University Medical Center in New York. "We're better able to give lots and lots of women more information about what's causing the problem and what the prognosis is and what special care their child might need."

He led the federally funded study, published in Thursday's New England Journal of Medicine.

A second study in the journal found that gene testing could reveal the cause of most stillbirths, many of which remain a mystery now. That gives key information to couples agonizing over whether to try again.

The prenatal study of 4,400 women has long been awaited in the field, and could make gene testing a standard of care in cases where initial screening with an ultrasound exam suggests a structural defect in how the baby is developing, said Dr. Susan Klugman, director of reproductive genetics at New York's Montefiore Medical Center, which enrolled 300 women into the study.

"We can never guarantee the perfect baby but if they want everything done, this is a test that can tell a lot more," she said.

Many pregnant women are offered screening with an ultrasound exam or a blood test that can flag some common abnormalities such as Down syndrome, but these are not conclusive.

The next step is diagnostic testing on cells from the fetus obtained through amniocentesis, which is like a needle biopsy through the belly, or chorionic villus sampling, which snips a bit of the placenta. Doctors look at the sample under a microscope for breaks or extra copies of chromosomes that cause a dozen or so abnormalities.

The new study compared this eyeball method to scanning with gene chips that can spot hundreds of abnormalities and far smaller defects than what can be seen with a microscope. This costs $1,200 to $1,800 versus $600 to $1,000 for the visual exam.

In the study, both methods were used on fetal samples from 4,400 women around the country. Half of the moms were at higher risk because they were over 35. One-fifth had screening tests suggesting Down syndrome. One-fourth had ultrasounds suggesting structural abnormalities. Others sought screening for other reasons.

"Some did it for anxiety — they just wanted more information about their child," Wapner said.

Of women whose ultrasounds showed a possible structural defect but whose fetuses were called normal by the visual chromosome exam, gene testing found problems in 6 percent — one out of 17.

"That's a lot. That's huge," Klugman said.

Gene tests also found abnormalities in nearly 2 percent of cases where the mom was older or ultrasounds suggested a problem other than a structural defect.

Dr. Lorraine Dugoff, a University of Pennsylvania high-risk pregnancy specialist, wrote in an editorial in the journal that gene testing should become the standard of care when a structural problem is suggested by ultrasound. But its value may be incremental in other cases and offset by the 1.5 percent of cases where a gene abnormality of unknown significance is found.

In those cases, "a lot of couples might not be happy that they ordered that test" because it can't give a clear answer, she said.

Ana Zeletz, a former pediatric nurse from Hoboken, N.J., had one of those results during the study. An ultrasound suggested possible Down syndrome; gene testing ruled that out but showed an abnormality that could indicate kidney problems — or nothing.

"They give you this list of all the things that could possibly be wrong," Zeletz said. Her daughter, Jillian, now 2, had some urinary and kidney abnormalities that seem to have resolved, and has low muscle tone that caused her to start walking later than usual.

"I am very glad about it," she said of the testing, because she knows to watch her daughter for possible complications like gout. Without the testing, "we wouldn't know anything, we wouldn't know to watch for things that might come up," she said.

The other study involved 532 stillbirths — deaths of a fetus in the womb before delivery. Gene testing revealed the cause in 87 percent of cases versus 70 percent of cases analyzed by the visual chromosome inspection method. It also gave more information on specific genetic abnormalities that couples could use to estimate the odds that future pregnancies would bring those risks.

The study was led by Dr. Uma Reddy of the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development.

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Online:

Medical journal: http://www.nejm.org

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Marilynn Marchione can be followed at http://twitter.com/MMarchioneAP

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Fiscal Cliff: Do You Trust the Polls?

Dec 5, 2012 4:49pm

National polls show that Republicans would take the brunt of the blame for a dive over the so-called fiscal cliff.  A Washington Post/Pew Research Survey released this week found that a majority of the public (53 percent) would point the finger at Republicans if Congress fails to reach a deal on taxes and government spending. Just 27 percent would blame President Obama.

But are national polls really the right tools with which to understand the political consequences of this latest legislative limbo? After all, the Romney and the Obama campaign both eschewed national polling during the campaign, focusing instead on the battleground states that would deliver the Electoral College.

And, when it comes to the House, a national sample isn’t particularly predictive either. There are very few Democrats or Republicans who sit in “swing districts.” Just 81 members of the House — less than 20 percent — won their seats with less than 55 percent of the vote.

In other words, what the general public thinks is not necessarily indicative of what the voters in the individual districts think. In fact, most Republicans are much more worried about a challenge from their right in a primary than a challenge from a Democrat.

“National polls in a Presidential race are useless for sure, and they are useless to members of Congress trying to make decisions about their own personal politics,” says Democratic pollster Jefrey Pollock. “But that doesn’t make them totally worthless. Just because the congressional folks are reelected by large margins, it’s still important to take temperatures of national sentiment. It’s very interesting/important to note what people nationally think about who should be blamed because that drives media coverage and the narrative.”

Republican strategist Jon Lerner agrees that national polling drives the national discussion, which in turn drives the national mood.

“National polls are necessarily broad, and they are therefore informative in a broad sense about the political environment and about national policy questions,” says Lerner. “If national polls say the Iraq war, or Obamacare, are broadly unpopular, it says something about the direction the national political discussion will take on those issues and on others that might have less energy behind them.”

Democratic pollster Geoff Garin says that you can actually use national data in “situations like now, when there is a national policy debate going on,” to gauge voter sentiment in individual districts.

“If you believe, as I do, that the high ground in politics is being able to capture the high ground in the center, national polls tell you a lot about where the center is,” Garin told me.  “And if your sample is large enough so you can understand responses by partisanship, geography (region of country, type of area), race, other demographics, etc., you can take a pretty good guess about the driving forces and what they would look like in a particular state or CD. And it is just a lot more cost efficient to do a large sample national survey than a bunch of state surveys.”

But, while national polls can be of some value in understanding the mood of the country going into the fiscal cliff debate, what they can’t predict is the response of voters if we indeed fall off that cliff. How voters assess blame today may be very, very different from who they hold responsible in the aftermath of a crisis.

SHOWS: World News

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